NY Yankees News, Information & Community

OOTP Guest Series: What if the Yankees had signed Albert Belle during the 1998-99 offseason?

January 29, 2019 by Mike

The hot stove is running cold right now, so this week we’re running a series of guest posts from Sam Tydings, Steven’s brother. Sam used Out of the Park Baseball to simulate some past “what if” Yankees scenarios. Yesterday we looked at the Greg Maddux non-signing. Today it’s the Albert Belle non-signing. You can follow Sam on Twitter at @simmonsclass.

It is hot stove season, which means it is officially time to picture every top free agent in Yankee pinstripes and without facial hair, while assuming the team will retain anyone they want to keep around as they pursue championship number 28. Currently the team is looking to build its next dynasty and fly more flags, but the 20th anniversary of a moment that nearly broke up the last Yankees dynasty recently passed.

In November of 1998, the Yankees not only nearly failed to keep Bernie Williams, but would have (allegedly) allowed him to sign with the Boston Red Sox. Had Williams walked, the Yankees would have purportedly signed temperamental outfielder Albert Belle, who was coming off of a year where he hit .328/.399/.655, leading the league in OPS and hitting 49 homers. Belle opted out of the last 3 years and $30 million dollars of his deal with the White Sox, ultimately signing a 5 year, $65 million deal with the Orioles. But what this blog presupposes is…what if he didn’t?

Thanks to the majesty of Out of the Park Baseball, I simulated the world where Bernie teamed up with Nomar to lead the 1999 Red Sox while Albert Belle tried to keep the Yankees emerging dynasty going.

I feel like George’s expectations probably would have been higher than this Opening Day lineup!

The fake 1999 season was an extraordinarily compelling one. The Yankees and Red Sox battled all season long, with the Bombers ultimately compiling 102 wins to Boston’s 101, good enough for a division title and ultimately the same ALCS matchup and result that actually occurred, as the Yankees defeated the Red Sox in 5 games before beating the Astros in 5 to claim their 25th World Series.

Belle hit 25 homers but struggled in the playoffs, while Bernie slashed .329/.406/.520 with 22 homers for the Red Sox. Then things got weird. The Red Sox shipped out Bernie after one season to clear budget space for some free agent signings, and the Rockies and Orioles ended up being the dynasties of the mid 2000’s. Belle never topped 27 homers with the Yankees, retiring after only playing 13 games in 2003. He topped out at just over 60% of the fake Hall of Fame vote before falling short, while Bernie never got over 20%, but did pick up a few rings with the Rockies, to put a bow on a stellar career and one way the story could have gone.

Had Bernie actually walked, I highly doubt the Yankees would have gone into the 1999 season with Tony Tarasco starting in center field like our fake Yankees did. Certainly by 2000, the team would have acquired a longer-term solution in center by trade or free agency. By Opening Day 2000, Jim Edmonds would be traded from the Angels to the Cardinals for Adam Kennedy and it is easy to picture Edmonds tracking fly balls in death valley at the old stadium and making highlight reel catches, even helping to cover for Belle’s lack of defense in the corner.

But one more interesting option might have been on the table for a fascinating what-if of its own: noted Yankee killer Ken Griffey Jr, who famously rejected a trade to the Mets before accepting a trade to Cincinnati before the 2000 season. At the time, Griffey was not said to be willing to accept a trade to the Yankees either, but with Bernie entrenched in center, the Yankees’ need wasn’t as pressing. But it’s hard to see the Yankees not being willing to throw together an offer around enticing (at the time) names like Ricky Ledee, Randy Keisler, Drew Henson, maybe even Alfonso Soriano if it meant Griffey would be taking his talents to the Bronx.

The Yankees dynasty of this simulation died on the vine after the 1999 title, but with Belle and Edmonds or Belle and Griffey, it could have potentially surpassed the heights the team ended up reaching. Of course, it easily could have fallen far short. Ultimately, we should all be thankful Cashman/Boras/Bernie were able to work something out to keep the dynasty alive and leave Belle’s tenure in pinstripes as a hypothetical, even if they should have won a few more titles along the way.

A reunion could benefit both Neil Walker and the Yankees as Spring Training approaches

January 29, 2019 by Mike

Pitchers and catchers report to Tampa two weeks from tomorrow. Some clubs open camp a day or two earlier, others a day or two later. In about two weeks though, Spring Training begins, and a lot of free agents will still be looking for work. Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel, and Craig Kimbrel will be fine. They’re going to get paid. The free agent middle class is feeling the squeeze the most.

Neil Walker felt that squeeze last winter. I thought he was looking at something like two years and $20M going into the offseason. The Jed Lowrie/DJ LeMahieu contract. Instead, Walker signed a one-year deal worth $4M with the Yankees on March 12th, two and a half weeks before Opening Day. That was coming off a season in which he hit .265/.362/.439 (114 wRC+) with 14 homers as a full-time player.

Walker, now 33, had to settle for a part-time role with the Yankees and hit .219/.309/.354 (81 wRC+) with eleven home runs last year. He was effective when pushed into an everyday role. As a true bench guy, he struggled. Walker is once again feeling the free agent squeeze, and now that he’s entering his mid-30s and coming off his worse full MLB season, I imagine he’s feeling that squeeze even more. Will he even get a Major League contract? I’m not sure.

With Spring Training on the horizon, the Yankees and Walker are in position to help each other out. A reunion could benefit both parties. I’m thinking a contract structure along these lines:

Minor league contract with a $3M salary at the MLB level, plus plate appearance incentives.
Opt-out clause at the end of Spring Training (say March 25th).
Walker can also opt out at any point before Opening Day if another team is willing to put him on their 40-man roster.
The Yankees can prevent Walker from opting out by adding him to their 40-man roster.

Walker made $4M last year and I can’t see him getting raise (or even making the same salary) after the year he had. He did well when pressed into action on an everyday basis. Overall though, he was below-average. That’s why I’m thinking a $3M salary instead of a $4M salary. It’s possible $3M is even a little generous at this point. Maybe $2M is more appropriate? Anyway, let’s talk through the other points.

What’s in it for the Yankees?

An insurance policy, basically. Should an infielder get hurt in Spring Training, Walker would be around to step right into the vacated roster spot. Heck, the Yankees still have an open bench spot. Even if everyone stays healthy in camp, the Yankees could still carry Walker on their bench. He could be the backup first baseman rather than LeMahieu as well as the emergency outfielder and emergency catcher (Walker caught in the minors), among other things.

Minor league contracts are zero risk and Walker, given his track record, is a nice little insurance policy to have lying around in Spring Training. And hey, if Walker’s willing to go to Triple-A for a bit during the regular season, great! If not, no big deal. The Yankees would be right back where they are right now. Nothing gained, but also nothing lost. They’d give Walker a look in camp and see whether he fits.

What’s in it for Walker?

A job, for starters. Those are hard to come by for second or third tier free agents these days. A minor league contract with the Yankees allows Walker to have a full and normal Spring Training with a team he knows. Last year he had to participate in the MLBPA’s free agent spring camp to get ready for the season. Signing with the Yankees would allow him to have a proper Spring Training and prepare for the season in a way he was unable to last year.

An end-of-spring opt-out clause is fairly standard for veterans on minor league deals. The twist is allowing him to opt out at any point in Spring Training if another team comes along and wants to put him on their MLB roster. Such a clause is uncommon but not unprecedented. In Walker’s case, any team that puts him on their 40-man roster is giving him an MLB job. He has enough service time to refuse an assignment to the minors once he’s on the 40-man. Any team that wants him will want him for their Opening Day roster.

Reporting to Spring Training allows Walker to prepare for the season and also showcase himself for other teams. He’s been in the league long enough now that he’s a known commodity. Still, playing in Spring Training beats sitting at home or working out in an MLBPA camp when you’re trying to land a job. Walker gets to work out and play, and do whatever he needs to do to prepare for the season, while still having the freedom to go to a team that wants him on their big league roster.

* * *

By all accounts Walker enjoyed his time with the Yankees last year and the Yankees enjoyed having him. I would not have blamed him at all for being upset about his free agency and contract status, and I’m sure that, deep down, he was. How he could he not be? Walker handled it like a pro though. He accepted his role and worked hard at it, though being a part-time player after playing everyday his entire career proved to be a difficult adjustment.

A minor league contract could benefit both sides. Walker would get to have a proper Spring Training with a team (and teammates) he knows while retaining the ability to leave should another team want him for their big league roster. The Yankees get to bring Walker to camp as insurance, and, if they want him to keep him around, they can block any opt-out by adding him to their big league roster. They’d have the right of first refusal, basically.

To me, this does not seem like an arrangement that would work for any player with any team. Could you imagine the Yankees doing this with, say, Derek Dietrich, a player they have no history with whatsoever? Nah. I’m also not sure this is something Walker would want to do right now. An agreement with the Yankees could scare away other teams. Position players are not due to report until February 19th. That gives Walker three weeks to explore other opportunities.

The Yankees and Walker have a history and each side knows what they would be getting into. If no other team comes calling before Spring Training begins, a minor league contract with the Yankees would allow Walker gets to prepare for the regular season and showcase himself for other clubs. The Yankees would get to keep him around as depth. It’s the best of a bad situation for Walker. Certainly preferable to sitting unsigned until mid-March again.

Update: Walker signed a one-year deal with the Marlins earlier this evening, the team announced. So much for that idea. Good for Neil though.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Rotation Depth

January 29, 2019 by Derek Albin

The following is the first post from our newest writer, Derek Albin. He currently contributes to Baseball Prospectus and has also written about the Yankees at the now defunct BP Bronx and It’s About The Money, Stupid. You’ll see his work regularly. You can follow Derek on Twitter at @derekalbin.

How many more Cessa starts do we have to watch? (Getty Images)

Conventional wisdom can be trite, but sometimes it exists for good reason. The old adage that you can never have enough starting pitching is something said ad nauseam, but holds true. Just look at the Yankees last year: twelve different pitchers started and ten of them did so on multiple occasions. This season, we can probably expect something similar.

Right now, the Yankees have baseball’s third-best projected rotation per Fangraphs. It’s pretty hard to knock a staff of that caliber, but if there’s any flaw, it’s depth. In particular, Luis Cessa, Chance Adams, Albert Abreu, and Domingo Acevedo project for 83 innings altogether. Decreasing that group’s workload would be ideal, and it looks like something the front office is considering. Even with pitchers and catchers reporting in just a few weeks, there are still some useful pitchers available in free agency.

Wade Miley

Like CC Sabathia, Miley appears to have saved his career thanks to an emphasis on the cutter. In the past, Miley had thrown four-seamers for more than half of his pitches. Last year, he started throwing his cutter more than 40 percent of the time to resounding success. His home run problems? Gone. He allowed just three long balls in over 80 innings. All told, Miley posted a career best 2.57 ERA, supported by a solid 3.59 FIP.

Steamer foresees some regression, projecting a 4.36 ERA this year. Still, sign me up for that as a depth starter. Of course, why would Miley take on such a role? Given his revitalization and history of durability (29 starts or more annually from 2012 through 2017), he should be able to find a regular gig somewhere. Barring a six-man rotation, which is unlikely given the amount of off-days to begin the regular season, Miley would be in the bullpen to begin the year. Sure, someone could get hurt during camp, but that’s not something Miley will want to count on. Miley would be a nice-to-have option, but it seems like an unlikely union. Then again, free agency is a weird, weird place nowadays.

Brett Anderson

It’s been over a decade now since Anderson was one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Injuries have held the southpaw back, but he has put together a few decent stretches at points throughout his career. Though he’s never been a strikeout artist, he’s consistently put together solid peripherals by throwing strikes without surrendering many homers. In a curtailed 2018 due to injury (shocking), he pitched to a 4.48 ERA and 4.17 FIP in just over 80 frames.

Steamer expects more of the same: a low four ERA with some time on the shelf. His ability is tantalizing because he has the makings of a stellar fourth starter, but he simply struggles to stay on the field. For that reason, he might be hard pressed to find a guaranteed spot in anyone’s rotation. Should that be the case, the Yankees are a great fit. I’m sure that the front office would prefer a more durable fallback option, but from a talent perspective, Anderson is hard to top for this role.

Jeremy Hellickson

Like Miley and Anderson, Hellickson also spent time on the disabled list last year. When on the mound, though, the righty pitched well for Washington. He posted a 3.45 ERA and 4.22 FIP in a hair over 90 innings, which was a strong recovery from a horrendous 2017. In time split with Philadelphia and Baltimore that year, Hellickson recorded a career-worst 1.92 HR/9, 5.43 ERA, and 5.77 FIP.

Hellickson’s 2017 is likely the reason for Steamer’s bearish outlook in 2019. Hellickson has always been a fly ball pitcher, so home runs are part of his game, but his highest HR/9 prior to 2017 was 1.36 in 2015. Most other seasons have been in the 1.1 or 1.2 range. Nonetheless, Steamer forecasts 1.59 HR/9, which balloons his projected ERA and FIP over five. I get that fly ball pitchers and Yankee Stadium don’t mix well, but when we’re talking about a sixth or seventh starter, beggars can’t be choosers. He might not be as good as he was in 2018, but I’m certainly not as low on him as Steamer.

Ervin Santana

Finger injuries ruined Santana’s 2018. He made just five starts that aren’t even worth talking about. All you need to know is that he was horrendous. The two years prior are different stories, however. For the Twins in 2016 and 2017, Santana totaled 6.2 fWAR and ERAs in the low threes. Granted, Santana is now 36 and his best days are most certainly behind him. He can’t be that far removed from his 2017 ability though, right?

Steamer disagrees and basically thinks he’s done as an effective starter, calling for an ERA and FIP above five. With his health and projection in mind, it’s a risky proposition to start Santana every fifth day from the get-go, so he will probably have to settle for the type of role the Yankees have available.

The Others

There are a handful of others who’ve been around the block, such as James Shields and Jason Hammel. I’m not very confident in options like those two exceeding the contribution that Cessa et. al. could provide, though a minor league deal wouldn’t hurt. Ditto goes for hurlers like Edwin Jackson, Doug Fister, Josh Tomlin, and Yovani Gallardo. Let’s not mention Clay Buchholz; the thought of him in pinstripes is rather unpleasant. Finally, you might have noticed I excluded Gio Gonzalez, who although still available, I don’t think it’s worth considering because he shouldn’t have to settle.

Eddy: Yankees sign David Hale and Jorge Saez to minor league contract

January 28, 2019 by Mike

According to Matt Eddy, the Yankees have re-signed right-hander David Hale and catcher Jorge Saez to minor league contracts. Hale has big league time and Saez has been in camp as a non-roster invitee the last few years. I imagine both received an invitation to Spring Training as part of their new contracts.

Hale, 31, had three separate stints as an emergency long-man with the Yankees last season. He even went from the Yankees to the Twins on waivers, then back to the Yankees on waivers. Four different times Hale was designed for assignment (Twins once, Yankees thrice) and he kept re-signing on new minor league deals. He allowed three runs in 10.2 innings with the Yankees.

After the Yankees cut Hale loose the third time, he joined the Hanwha Eagles in Korea and had a 4.34 ERA in 12 starts and 66.1 innings. He pitched to a 4.20 ERA (3.94 FIP) in 55.2 innings with Triple-A Scranton last season and owns a 4.49 ERA (4.49 FIP) in 192.1 career big league innings. Hale had some prospect shine with the Braves back in the day but never managed to stick.

Saez, 28, originally joined the Yankees as a minor league Rule 5 Draft pick from the Blue Jays in December 2016. He hit .237/.324/.362 (94 wRC+) with five homers in 173 plate appearances as a part-timer with Double-A Trenton last year. Saez became a minor league free agent following last season and I have to think he’ll return to Trenton with Kyle Higashioka and Ryan Lavarnway ticked for Triple-A.

In my non-roster invitees preview I noted the Yankees could still sign another depth righty and another depth catcher, and here we are. Go me. Hale and Saez join Lavarnway, infielder Gio Urshela, lefty Rex Brothers, lefty Danny Coulombe, outfielder Billy Burns, outfielder Matt Lipka, righty Drew Hutchison, and righty Danny Farquhar as minor league signings this winter.

OOTP Guest Series: What if the Yankees had signed Greg Maddux during the 1992-93 offseason?

January 28, 2019 by Mike

The hot stove is running cold right now, so this week we’re going to run a series of guest posts from Sam Tydings, Steven’s brother. Sam used Out of the Park Baseball to simulate some past “what if” Yankees scenarios. We begin today with the Greg Maddux non-signing. You can follow Sam on Twitter at @simmonsclass.

The hottest Broadway shows. The biggest contract given to a pitcher in MLB history. Donald Trump. These were supposed to be the deciding factors behind Greg Maddux leaving the Cubs to join an upstart Yankees club looking to make a big free agent splash in the winter of 1992. Instead Maddux spurned the Yankees, who had not made a playoff appearance since 1981, in favor of joining a Braves team which had won back-to-back NL pennants but had yet to get over the hump and win the World Series.

The Yankees not only missed out on Maddux, but every free agent pitcher they targeted that winter, including David Cone, Doug Drabek, and Jose Guzman, along with Barry Bonds, who left Pittsburgh for San Francisco that winter despite the Yankees making some overtures. Perhaps this could be attributed to the fact that George Steinbrenner was still suspended by Major League Baseball due to the Howie Spira/Dave Winfield issue. Of course, Steinbrenner ceding day-to-day operations of the team, including roster control, to Gene Michael was a net positive in the end as it assuredly kept the Yankees from shipping off the entire Core Four (and Bernie!), even if it meant whiffing on the class of ’93.

Maddux left $6 million on the table, a big deal in pre-strike MLB money, in order to form one of the most formidable rotations in MLB history. The mid to late 1990’s turned out pretty well for both Maddux (three Cy Youngs and a World Series ring) and the Yankees (four titles, two over Maddux’s Braves), but let’s imagine a past where Maddux takes the Yankees’ monster offer and joins a future dynasty with Bernie Williams, Don Mattingly, and Paul O’Neill on the MLB roster and the Core Four waiting in the wings in the minors.

The 1993 Yankees were the sign of an extremely bright future in the Bronx, as the team tallied 88 wins, sparking a run of finishing above .500 that continues to this day. Of course, the team failed to win the AL East and were winning the division handily in 1994 when the strike ended play in August. Adding Maddux to the team changed everything in a hurry. Our fake OOTP ’93 Yanks led the league with 108 wins, led by Maddux’s 19-8 record and an incredible 190 ERA+ in a league-leading 291 innings. Unfortunately, the team was vanquished by Yankee killers Edgar Martinez and Ken Griffey, Jr. in the ALCS. Here are Maddux’s numbers:

Of course, the team’s run of dominance was only just beginning, as adding players like Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, and Jorge Posada, all who were in the Yankees’ system by the time Maddux signed, turned the AL into a laugher. Starting with the 1995 season* the Yankees won seven straight pennants and nine out of ten, including the 1995-1997 and 2000 and 2003 World Series. Maddux was of course incredible, winning three Cy Youngs, two MVP’s, and a World Series MVP along the way, cementing his spot in Yankees lore and the MLB Hall of Fame. Yes, it is possible that the Yankees were one move away from having an even more dominant run than we experienced twenty years ago.

* A quick caveat on Out of the Park Baseball: It plays out the 1994 season as scheduled and a full 162-game schedule for 1995. So for this exercise we have to suspend our disbelief for a little and pretend that the richest team adding the best pitcher to a huge contract would have done away with the strike instead of exacerbating tensions.

As Maddux helped prove in Atlanta, the MLB playoffs are a random beast. Every dynastic team experienced a huge break or two along the way, on the field or off, and every would-be dynasty was denied some of those same breaks. The 1999 Braves had an 8th inning lead in two World Series games but all it is remembered for is a Yankees sweep to cap off a dominant century of play.

Maddux to the Yankees might have been enough to push the team past Toronto in ’93 but more importantly, it raises the ceiling on the championship window that already existed. Would Maddux at the peak of his powers in 1995 been enough to give the Yankees the AL East and avoid the Seattle team that would ultimately fell them? Would it have been enough to propel the Yankees past the rest of the American League in 1997?

With an ace missing from the Braves’ rotation, does another team fill the power void in the National League to play spoiler to the Yankees dynasty we all knew and loved, or would they have just been replacement victims in the background of our World Series VHS collection? The Yankees missed out on Maddux, but obviously did not miss out on the parades. It is the most stereotypical Yankee fan complaint in the world, but the 90’s dynasty somehow could have been even better, and everyone would have hated the Yankees just that much more.

Getting way from Coors Field could help Adam Ottavino be more consistently dominant

January 28, 2019 by Mike

From a stathead standpoint, the Yankees made their most interesting move of the offseason two weeks ago, when they agreed to a three-year contract with Adam Ottavino. Ottavino is very much into analytics. The native New Yorker used state of the art tracking equipment to rebuild himself in a Harlem storefront last winter. The result was a dominant season and a nice three-year contract. It worked so well he did it again this offseason.

“I still have my same space (in Harlem),” said Ottavino to Bryan Hoch last week. “The way I developed my practice plan last year was very effective. I just tried to continue what I was doing and build off of it with some small changes to see if I can get a little bit more out of myself. I’m still working on a new pitch. Not sure if it’ll be game-ready or not this year, but I’ve been working to expand my arsenal. I’m just trying to take a growth mindset into every day.”

Ottavino has three pitches but he doesn’t use his cutter a whole lot, so he’s essentially a two-pitch reliever with a show-me third pitch. Perhaps the pitch he’s working on this winter is a splitter? Not sure. I hope we find out. Ottavino’s moneymaker is a big low-80s slider that darts away from right-handed batters. He also uses a two-seam fastball …

… that has power to it. His slider gets so much attention because of its cartoonish movement that it’s easy to forget this dude has a mid-90s two-seamer that runs all over the place and topped out at 98.5 mph last year. Last year Ottavino used his slider 45% of the time, his two-seamer 40% of the time, and his cutter 10% of the time. The other 5% was get-me-over four-seamers and pitches Statcast probably misclassified.

Weirdly, Ottavino was more effective at home in Coors Field than on the road throughout his career. Last year he posted a 2.10 ERA (2.49 FIP) at home and a 2.70 ERA (2.93 FIP) on the road. From 2012-18 he had a 3.36 ERA (3.32 FIP) in 206 innings at Coors Field and a 3.46 ERA (3.53 FIP) in 184.2 innings on the road. Huh. I mean, it’s not a huge difference, but the fact Ottavino was better at Coors Field than on the road is unusual.

Although he didn’t come out and say it, Ottavino indicated he’s looking forward to getting out of Coors Field during his introductory conference call last week. I can’t blame him. It must feel like walking on eggshells pitching in that park. Ottavino said he’s especially excited about the movement on his pitches away from Coors Field and specifically the consistency of that movement.

“There are some adjustments you have to make with altitude, and understanding how a pitch will break there compared to at sea level and calibrating,” Ottavino said to Dan Martin. “(My slider) should move more at home this season. I’m especially excited about the movement on my other pitchers, the two-seam fastball and cutter. It should be a little easier to be consistent.”

Real quick physics crash course: Gravity pushes oxygen closer to the Earth’s surface, so the higher the elevation, the less oxygen. Air resistance against the seams of a thrown (or hit) baseball create movement. Change the ball’s spin and spin axis and you create different movement. That’s how you get fastballs, sliders, etc. Because there is less oxygen at altitude, there is less resistance, and pitches do not move as much as they do at sea level. Got that? Good.

This is the crux of the Coors Field hangover argument. Rockies hitters see different break at home than on the road, so while Coors Field undoubtedly boosts their numbers because the ball carries more and the outfield is huge, they also have to make an adjustment each time they go out on the road because they’re seeing different movement. It’s tough. Pitching is no different. Check out the difference in movement on Ottavino’s pitches last year:

	Two-Seamer			Cutter			Slider
	Spin	H Mvmt	V Mvmt	Spin	H Mvmt	V Mvmt	Spin	H Mvmt	V Mvmt
Home	2,320	-11.5	+6.0	2,609	+5.3	+5.2	2,817	+14.1	-0.6
Away	2,266	-14.0	+7.0	2,602	+6.9	+7.6	2,768	+17.8	+1.2

The difference in spin rate on the two-seamer and slider is relatively small. About 2.3% on the two-seamer and 1.7% on the slider. That’s nothing compared to the difference in movement. On the road Ottavino’s two-seamer had 2.5 inches of extra horizontal break* in on righties, on average, while his slider had 3.7 inches of extra horizontal break away from righties. That’s huge! His cutter, his seldom used third pitch, also had more horizontal movement on the road. Everything Ottavino throws moves a lot. It moves more away from Coors Field.

* Positive horizontal movement is movement away from righty batters and negative horizontal movement is movement away from lefty batters. Vertical movement tells us how much the pitch deviates from a straight line trajectory without considering gravity. Positive vertical movement doesn’t mean the ball is rising. It just means it’s dropping less. Fastballs with positive vertical movement are fastballs with “life,” so to speak.

On average, right-handed Rockies pitchers other than Ottavino saw their two-seamer move an extra 4.2 inches (!) horizontally on the road than at Coors Field last year. That’s an even larger difference than Ottavino’s two-seam fastball. Their sliders only picked up an extra inch or so horizontally, which isn’t as significant as the two-seam movement, but it’s not nothing either. Ottavino gains almost four inches on the slider on the road.

Extra movement sounds pretty cool, though I have to think getting different movement on your pitches at home than on the road can be a challenge. Ottavino’s unintentional walk rate was 8.5% at home and 11.4% on the road last season. What are the chances all that extra movement — several inches of movement on his two main pitches — contributed to the increase walked rate on the road? I think the chances are pretty good.

Ottavino said his slider “should move more at home this season” and that’s pretty cool. I think the most important thing Ottavino said is it “should be a little easier to be consistent” with his pitches. Imagine having a nice ten-day homestand, then going out on a seven-day road trip and having to adjust to your pitches having more movement, and then going back home and adjusting to less movement, over and over again all year. Has to be tough. Has to be.

We’ve never seen this version (or any version) of Ottavino away from Coors Field for an extended period of time. Only bits and pieces, and only when there was the hangover effect to consider. There will be no hangover effect going forward. Ottavino won’t have to deal with pitching at altitude. In theory, it’ll make him more consistent because his pitches will move the same at home and on the road. And, in theory, that’ll make him more effective overall.

Ottavino pitched well enough in Coors Field that pitching at sea level full-time and developing some consistency may not improve his performance. He might just stay the same pitcher as he ages and hey, that’s fine with me. Ottavino is really good. That he’s willing to use analytics to get better and is getting away from altitude makes me think he can still take his performance to another level. He’ll have that many fewer in-season adjustments to make because he won’t have different movement at home as on the road, and that’ll make life much easier.

Fan Confidence Poll: January 28th, 2019

January 28, 2019 by Mike

2018 Regular Season Record: 100-62 (851 RS, 669 RA, 98-64 expected record), second in ALE
2018 Postseason Record: 2-3 (22 RS, 29 RA), won WC Game, lost ALDS